The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for April 2023 global air cargo markets, showing a continued, but slower, decline against the previous year’s demand performance.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), fell 6.6% compared to April 2022 (-7.0% for international operations). This decline was an improvement over the previous month's performance (-7.6%).
Capacity (measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers, ACTK) was up 13.4% compared to April 2022. It was also up 3.2% compared to April 2019, marking the first time in three years that the capacity has surpassed pre-COVID levels. The strong uptick is primarily driven by belly capacity as demand in the passenger business recovers. Adjusting for this, freighter capacity declined 2.3%. Preighter operations ceased in March after 2.5 years of continuous activity.
Key factors influencing demand include:
* The global new export orders component of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a leading indicator of cargo demand, improved in April. China’s PMI level surpassed the critical 50-mark indicating that demand for manufactured goods from the world’s largest export economy is growing.
* Global goods trade increased by 0.2% in March, marking the first annual increase since November 2022.
* Consumer and producer prices increases have moderated. The April headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded rates of 5.0% in the US, 0.3% in China, and 3.5% in Japan. While Europe (excluding the UK) was higher (8.1%), it is well below its 11.5% October 2022 peak.
"The air cargo industry is adjusting itself to the implications of the recovery in passenger demand that brings with it an expansion of belly capacity. Preighter operations stopped in March and freighter services were scaled back by 2.3% in April. The demand environment is challenging to read. Tapering inflation is definitely a positive. But the degree and speed at which that could lead to looser monetary policies that might stimulate demand is unclear. The resilience that got the air cargo industry through the COVID-19 crisis is also critical in the aftermath," said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
