Global air cargo demand reached a record high in 2025, with traffic forecast to grow 3.5% annually over the next two decades, driven by e-commerce, artificial intelligence, supply chain diversification and expanding international trade.
The global air cargo industry recorded a new annual traffic high in 2025, with demand increasing nearly 5% year-on-year despite trade volatility, geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing disruptions to global supply chains.
Looking ahead, global air cargo traffic, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% between 2026 and 2045, effectively doubling from 2025 levels. The long-term outlook highlights the growing importance of air freight in supporting global commerce, industrial production and increasingly time-sensitive supply chains.
Economic growth will remain a fundamental driver of demand. Global real GDP is expected to expand by 2.6% annually over the next 20 years, while global trade and industrial production are projected to grow by 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively.
E-commerce and AI reshape global cargo flows
Structural changes in global commerce are creating new opportunities for the air cargo industry. The continued expansion of direct-to-consumer business models, emerging e-commerce platforms and demand for faster deliveries are expected to support express and air cargo growth, particularly across South Asia, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
Intra-East Asia and Oceania, alongside India's domestic market, are expected to be among the fastest-growing air cargo markets as online retail, digital connectivity and distribution infrastructure continue to expand.
Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is emerging as another significant driver of air cargo demand. Growing investment in AI infrastructure and data centres is generating substantial requirements for transporting semiconductors, computing equipment, server-related hardware and communications technology.
According to IATA, more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025, highlighting the critical role of aviation in supporting the global technology supply chain.
These developments are strengthening major trade flows, particularly between East Asia and North America, East Asia and Europe, as well as within East Asia and Oceania.
Supply chain diversification reshapes trade lanes
Geopolitical uncertainty and evolving trade policies are encouraging businesses to diversify manufacturing and sourcing locations, reshaping established international cargo flows.
A notable shift has occurred in the East Asia–North America market. China accounted for more than two-thirds of US air import volumes from East Asia in 2017, compared with slightly more than one-third in 2025. Meanwhile, Northeast and Southeast Asia together increased their share to nearly two-thirds.
Despite these changes, the East Asia–North America corridor remains the world's largest air cargo flow and is forecast to nearly double by 2045.
South Asia–East Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing international air cargo market, with traffic projected to increase 3.2 times by 2045, reflecting expanding manufacturing activity and strengthening regional trade connections.
Dedicated freighters remain critical to future growth
As global cargo networks become increasingly complex, dedicated freighters will continue to play a central role in meeting the industry's evolving requirements.
Freighters provide operational flexibility, network efficiency and specialised capabilities for shipments that may not be suitable for passenger aircraft, including hazardous materials, oversized equipment, high-value goods and time-critical cargo.
Dedicated freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic, reinforcing the long-term requirement for both new-production freighters and passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions.
Integrators specialising in express and time-definite shipments are also expected to outperform the wider market, increasing their share of global air cargo traffic to nearly 25% by 2045.
As global trade patterns evolve, the combination of e-commerce expansion, AI-driven technology shipments, manufacturing diversification and demand for specialised logistics solutions is expected to underpin the next phase of air cargo growth.
With demand projected to double over the next two decades, the industry will continue to rely on flexible freighter capacity, resilient networks and efficient global connectivity to support the changing requirements of international commerce.
