Following a -13% global tonnage decline during this year’s LNY period, worldwide tonnages have rebounded with two consecutive +3% week-on-week (WoW) increases. That compares with a total drop of around -20% in the weeks surrounding LNY in 2024, followed by a combined rebound of +15% across the following two weeks.

Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins this year recorded a +15% WoW rebound in week 7 (10 to 16 February), after dropping by around -35% from a pre-LNY high in week 4 to their lowest point, in week 5. That compares with a fall of almost -60% in the equivalent phase during last year’s LNY period, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s database.

This year's dip in air cargo tonnages during the Lunar New Year (LNY) period is relatively shallow compared with last year. The overall increasing trend of e-commerce demand since last year might have contributed to this dynamic, but the trends and underlying factors for air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong are rather complex this year and remain difficult to interpret, especially until we are well clear of the effects of LNY and recent US ‘de minimis’ rule changes, and reversals.

Further analysis indicates that there was no significant difference in the performance this LNY of China and Hong Kong origin cargo to Europe or to North America – or, indeed, to the USA. So, there is no real evidence, in data terms, of a significant level of ‘front-loading’ activity in anticipation of the expected tariffs in the USA on China-origin air cargo – nor of the confusion caused by US ‘de minimis’ rules for China leading to unexpectedly low volumes of China/HKG origin cargo to the USA. But it is also possible that those factors may have cancelled each other out, to some extent.

Tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the USA did rebound significantly in week 7, regaining +40% and +27% respectively, week on week. Nevertheless, they remain well down (around -20% and -30% lower, respectively) compared with their average levels in January.