Air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe appear to have begun to stabilize after weeks of sharp declines since new European Union (EU) import duty rules from 1 July added costs and complexities that have particularly affected low-value e-commerce shipments.

According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe edged back upwards by +1% in week 34 (17 to 23 August), week on week (WoW), the first WoW increase since early June. Nevertheless, the volumes remain well below their levels this time last year, with mainland China to Europe tonnages down -8%, year on year (YoY), and Hong Kong to Europe volumes – which have been heavily dependent on e-commerce traffic in the last couple of years – down a massive -33%, YoY. For Hong Kong to Europe traffic, that YoY gap – resulting from the end of the EU’s ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value imports – has narrowed slightly from the -35% deficit recorded in week 33, whereas for mainland China to Europe volumes, the YoY deficit has expanded from -5% to -8%.

Although it’s relatively early days since the 1 July ending of EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value imports, the WoW uptick in tonnages from China and Hong Kong (CN/HK) to Europe could signal a bottoming out of that downward trend and a potential stabilization of volumes at a new lower level, supported by rebounding post-summer demand.

Total Asia Pacific origin volumes in week 34 were up, WoW, by +7%, after falling by around -5% the previous week, taking them back slightly above their levels of week 33, and +4% higher than the equivalent week last year. More than half of that +7% WoW increase is explained by the recovery ex-Japan.

On the pricing side, average worldwide air cargo rates remained stable at US$2.98 per kilo – much as they have for the last 5 weeks – based on a full-market mix of spot rates and contract rates, and are +22% higher than this time last year. Average worldwide spot rates in week 34 edged up +1%, WoW, to US$3.36 per kilo, making them +28% higher, YoY, with the biggest YoY percentage rises coming from North America (+51%). MESA (+42%), and Europe (+27%), with Asia Pacific origin rates up +22%, YoY.

Total worldwide air cargo capacity remained broadly stable in week 34, regaining around +1%, WoW, after retreating slightly (-1%, WoW) in each of the previous two weeks. The biggest WoW increase was from Asia Pacific markets, where capacity rebounded by +3% in week 34 after falling by a similar amount in the previous two weeks combined. Capacity from MESA markets regained +1%, WoW, in week 34 after rising +2% the previous week.